I'd like to introduce the first guest analyst to the EKTAN, Mr. Martyn Roetter, Ph.D. I met Martyn through his writing on the Gerson Lehrman Group web site and have become a big fan of his writing and analysis on the wireless industry and technology issues in general. Martyn approaches issues from a detailed and many times historical perspective, which I appreciate. He has staked out what I would characterize as a reasoned, but skeptical position regarding WiMAX. With Martyn's permission, I am republishing a recent article that he wrote on the private GLG web site. A brief bio for Martyn is at the end of the article.
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Vodafone's 'Long Term' Hesitance
Summary
Vodafone's series of statements over time about LTE are unsurprising. They illustrate normal and ongoing jockeying for negotiating position between and among operators and equipment vendors, continuing uncertainties about the demand for broadband wireless data capacity, and significant differences between market dynamics, installed networks, and competitive environments across the world, including among the various properties of Vodafone itself.
Analysis:
North AmericaThe question for each operator of which next generation mobile
broadband wireless technology to deploy - and in which markets and when - will
be an outcome affected by a combination of perceptions of market demand, the
actions of competitors, the status and usage of its existing networks, the
availability and details of the offerings from vendors (network equipment and
mobile devices), the regulatory environment, its spectrum holdings, and of
course its financial situation.
Vodafone itself owns properties in markets with very different economic,
regulatory, and competitive situations. As a 3GPP operator it can follow an
upgrade path to HSPA+ which may in some markets delay the need for it to move
to LTE or any other 4G network technology, which necessarily involves a major
technological change, beyond the time when this shift becomes imperative in
other markets, or for competitors whose existing technology path may run out of
steam earlier. It should be noted that these decisions on timing depend as much
if not more on (as they should) the behavior and activities of customers and
services providers, and hence how rapidly capacity demands grow, as they do
upon the hopes and persuasive power of vendors to sell new technologies. It is
ironic that perhaps the first major deployments of LTE may occur among CDMA2000
(e.g. Verizon Wireless, Telus, and Bell Mobility in North America)
rather than among 3GPP (the GSM camp) operators if the former conclude that the
CDMA2000 upgrade path will come to a commercial dead end before HSPA does.
Allocations and assignments of spectrum will also be important for operators' ability to introduce new network technologies. On the WiMax front there is some movement to give mobile WiMax a chance to establish itself as a viable technology stream prior to the anticipated emergence of LTE. For example Ofcom in the U.K. is trying to give mobile WiMax a chance to become established against existing GSM competitors by auctioning 2.6 GHz frequencies for mobile use later this year in the context of a technology-neutral policy.
India is another country in which the 2.5 GHz band may provide opportunities for mobile WiMax to prove its worth in significant deployments, if for example the WiMax initiative of the state-owned BSNL is fruitful in exploiting this spectrum before other spectrum for 3G services is made available. It is nevertheless unfortunate that WiMax advocates continue to present misleading statements about the significance of the availability of today’s WiMax systems as a time-to-market advantage over the later but considerably more powerful LTE, ignoring the question of when standards for WiMax systems that can match the performance targets of LTE will be finalized. In contrast current WiMax systems are not different in performance in most cases (and may be somewhat superior or inferior in others) to already widely deployed alternative technologies. Investors assessing the relative commercial prospects for competing wireless technology ecosystems do need to keep the laws of physics in mind as well as business and financial considerations.
Martyn Roetter, is a Principal at MFRConsulting, an independent consultant in the Telecom, Information, Media, Electronics (TIME) sector, and a specialist in global business strategy. Previously he was Vice President at Arthur D. Little, in charge of its North American TIME practice, and Vice President at Decision Resources, Inc., managing consulting and advisory publications services for TIME industries. He also worked at PA Consulting in the UK and US. He has over 25 years of experience in advising on business strategy and technology-related issues for vendors, service providers, financial investors, and regulators and public policy makers. He has worked on projects in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. He served as Chairman of the Compensation Committee of the Board of Allen Telecom until its acquisition by Andrew Corp. Current foci include Broadband wireless and New Generation Networks, Web 2.0 techniques, mobile terminals, regulation, and industry restructuring.
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This Article Copyright 2008 by Martyn Roetter
Some Rights Reserved by Creative Commons License
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